The report anticipates a modest growth rate and identifies potential economic challenges.
Key Points:
Global Economic Growth: The forecast predicts that the world economy will grow by only 2.7% year-on-year in 2024, following a 3.1% growth in 2023. This rate could be the lowest in non-crisis years since the dot-com bubble burst in 2001, excluding the crisis years of 2009 and 2020.
Interest Rate Decrease in the USA: The expected decrease in U.S. interest rates by 1.25% in 2024 is seen as a supporting factor for the global economy.
Recession in the US: A mild recession is anticipated in the United States, attributed to the delayed impact of high interest rates. The recession is expected to begin soon and last for several months.
Challenges in the UK and Eurozone: Similar economic issues are predicted for Great Britain and the Eurozone. Consequently, the economy of developed countries is projected to grow by only 0.9% year-on-year in 2024, following a 1.5% growth in 2023.
Developing Countries' Economic Slowdown: Developing countries are expected to face an economic slowdown, with the continuation of issues in China's real estate market posing a major challenge. Conversely, India's economy is expected to show preemptive growth dynamics. The economies of developing countries are projected to grow by 4.1% year-on-year in 2024, after a 4.4% growth in 2023.
Gold Market Outlook: The forecast suggests a favorable outlook for gold. With the current S&P 500/gold ratio at 2.35x (compared to a median value of 1.4x since 1927), a return to the historical norm would imply a significant increase in the price of gold to $3.0-3.4 thousand per troy ounce, assuming the S&P 500 stays at current levels or doesn't fall below the 4200 mark.
This comprehensive analysis indicates a period of economic adjustment and challenges across various global regions in the upcoming year.
