As Ukraine navigates its ongoing conflict with Russia, the election outcome introduces a mix of optimism and uncertainty regarding future support and strategic partnerships.
Immediate Reactions from Global Leaders
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine extended his congratulations to Trump, describing his victory as "impressive." Zelenskyy expressed hope for a "strong United States of America under the determined leadership of President Trump" and emphasized the importance of bipartisan support for Ukraine.
"We look forward to an era of a strong United States of America under the determined leadership of President Trump. We rely on further strong bipartisan support for Ukraine in the United States," Zelenskyy stated.
Russian President's Spokesman Dmitry Peskov
In contrast, Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin, dismissed any notions of welcoming Trump. This stark difference in reactions underscores the geopolitical tensions that may intensify following Trump's presidency.
"Vladimir Putin has no plans to welcome Trump," Peskov remarked, highlighting the strained relations between Russia and the incoming US administration.
Implications for the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict
Potential for Conflict Resolution
During his campaign, Trump vowed to end the war in Ukraine "in 24 hours," raising expectations for a swift resolution. However, experts remain skeptical about the feasibility of such promises.
Alyona Hetmanchuk, Director of the "New Europe" Center, believes Trump could aid in halting the war but not necessarily end it. She emphasizes the need for decisive political actions that demonstrate to Putin that continuing the war would jeopardize his regime rather than Ukraine's independence.
"Trump can help stop the war, but not end it, if he is ready to demonstrate to Putin that the continuation of the war will not mean the end of independent Ukraine, but the end of his own regime."
The Role of US Presidential Influence
Vitaly Portnikov, a journalist and publicist, argues that the outcome of the war hinges more on Russian leadership than on the US presidency. He contends that no US president can offer Putin what Russia truly needs to cease hostilities.
"The outcome of the war between Russia and Ukraine depends not on who is the president of the United States, but on who is the president of Russia."
However, Portnikov acknowledges that any US president can influence the conflict by reducing the resources Russia requires to sustain its military efforts, albeit through a prolonged process involving global economic dynamics.
Negotiations and Financial Support
Prospects of Negotiations
Political Scientist Volodymyr Fesenko suggests that Trump's presidency may usher in negotiations with Russia, although reaching an agreement swiftly remains improbable, especially with Putin's entrenched position.
"Trump has been talking about negotiations for a long time, and in the near future he may start taking steps in this direction. But it will not be possible to come to an agreement quickly, primarily with Putin."
Fesenko warns that any ceasefire or "freezing of the conflict" could come with demands from Russia for Ukraine to renounce NATO membership, a move that could lead to public dissatisfaction and political turmoil within Ukraine.
Continuity of US Financial Aid
Alyona Hetmanchuk posits that Trump's victory could lead to a rollback of the Biden administration's measured support for Ukraine. She argues that this shift may exhaust Ukraine's capacity to reclaim occupied territories and defend its current positions effectively.
"This policy has exhausted itself not only from the point of view of Ukraine's ability to liberate the temporarily occupied territories, but also from the point of view of defending the current positions."
In this scenario, Hetmanchuk advocates for Ukraine to forge stronger alliances with European nations, forming "coalitions of the determined" that can independently bolster Ukraine's defense and economic stability.
Leveraging Military Aid as Negotiation Tools
Trump has indicated a willingness to provide financial assistance to Ukrainians on credit, which Volodymyr Fesenko suggests could be used as leverage in negotiations with Russia.
"The future US president can use the topic of military aid to Ukraine as a lever of pressure in the negotiation process."
Strategic Preparations by Ukraine
Diplomatic Shifts
With the transition to a Trump administration, Ukraine anticipates changes in its diplomatic landscape, including the appointment of a new US ambassador as Oksana Markarova's term concludes. This shift underscores the need for Ukraine to adapt its diplomatic strategies to align with the incoming administration's policies.
Securing Pending Aid
Fesenko emphasizes the importance of securing financial aid that the US Senate approved in April but has yet to be fully disbursed. Additionally, halting Russia's offensive in the Donetsk region remains a critical objective for Ukraine's strategic negotiations.
"Ukraine will also have a new US ambassador. Oksana Markarova's term is coming to an end."
Expert Opinions on Future Dynamics
Alyona Hetmanchuk's Perspective
Hetmanchuk highlights the exhaustion of current US support policies and the necessity for Ukraine to seek stronger, more decisive alliances with European countries. She underscores the importance of coalitions that do not rely solely on US aid, recognizing the volatile nature of US domestic politics.
"Ukraine needs to get closer to European countries, in particular, to create 'coalitions of the determined'. These are countries that understand that European security cannot depend on the results of the elections in the USA and are ready to take more decisive steps."
Vitaly Portnikov's Analysis
Portnikov maintains that the resolution of the war is more contingent on Russian leadership dynamics than on the US presidency. He suggests that while the US can influence the war's trajectory by limiting Russia's resources, the ultimate outcome rests with Russia's internal political landscape.
"I don't see the president of the United States, any president of the United States, has the opportunity to offer the president of Russia what the president of Russia really needs."
Conclusion: Navigating a Complex Future
Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election introduces a period of uncertainty and potential volatility in US-Ukraine relations. While there is optimism that Trump might adopt a "peace through strength" approach, experts caution that the complexities of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict require more nuanced and sustained efforts beyond presidential rhetoric.
Ukraine must prepare for a "roller coaster" of diplomatic and financial challenges, leveraging international alliances and securing essential aid to navigate the evolving geopolitical landscape. The outcome of Trump's presidency will undoubtedly play a significant role in shaping Ukraine's strategies and resilience in the face of ongoing adversity.
As Ukraine continues its fight for sovereignty and integration into Euro-Atlantic structures, the global community watches closely, anticipating the implications of this pivotal election on regional stability and international support dynamics.
