Key Numbers (Q2 2025 NBU Business Expectations Survey)
| Indicator | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business Expectations Index (BEI) | 103.1 % | 108.2 % | ▼ but > 100 = optimism |
| Expected 12‑mo. inflation | 10.9 % | 11.5 % | ▼ |
| Expected FX rate (UAH/USD) | 43.84 | 44.23 | ▼ |
| Firms surveyed | 676 | — | — |
What’s Driving Optimism
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Sales & production: Most firms in 15 regions foresee higher output and revenues.
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CapEx plans: Positive outlook for machinery, equipment, and inventory spending.
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Sector bright spots: Energy & water supply, mining, and agriculture lead sentiment.
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Large exporters: Show the strongest recovery expectations.
Caution Flags
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Employment: Net negative hiring plans—especially in transport, trade, and utilities.
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Construction CapEx: Managers more guarded about new building investments.
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Financing: Fewer firms plan to borrow; 83 % of those that will, prefer hryvnia loans.
Constraints to Growth
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Ongoing hostilities & logistics risks
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Shortage of qualified labour
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Elevated cost of capital despite easing inflation views
Takeaways for Stakeholders
| Group | Implication |
|---|---|
| Policy‑makers | Stabilising inflation & FX expectations give room to refine monetary easing. |
| Investors | Industries tied to energy, mining, and agro offer the highest confidence signals. |
| HR Leaders | Talent scarcity underscores the need for upskilling and retention incentives. |
| Banks | Lower appetite for borrowing suggests capacity to recalibrate credit terms or introduce FX‑hedged products. |
Despite a dip from Q1, the Business Expectations Index remains above the 100‑point optimism threshold. Firms expect better sales, steadier prices, and a stronger hryvnia—yet hiring plans lag and war‑related uncertainties dominate decision‑making.
