European Market Shifts to New Corn Crop
The European corn market is already focusing on the new harvest, while last year’s grain has almost lost liquidity. Ukrainian exporters are taking advantage of the situation, offering competitive prices and securing strong demand from European buyers.
-
Current market price: $197–203 per ton.
-
Some traders already offer $205–206 CPT-port with October–November deliveries.
-
EU buyers — Spain, Portugal, and the Netherlands — are leading demand for November–December shipments.
Why the EU Is Increasing Imports
Europe is facing serious yield problems:
-
France: first harvest results show only 3–4 t/ha.
-
Romania, Hungary, Poland: similar issues are reducing domestic supply.
➡️ As a result, the EU is expected to increase corn imports from the projected 18–19 million tons to 22–23 million tons in 2025.
➡️ Ukraine is emerging as the key supplier to fill this gap.
Ukraine’s Export Performance
According to the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (VAR) cooperative Pusk:
-
Ukrainian exporters have already sold about 4 million tons of the new crop for November–December deliveries.
-
Weather conditions remain a risk factor: delays in the growing season may slow down supply, pushing prices higher.
Price Outlook: October 2025 – January 2026
-
October 2025: expected stabilization at $220 CPT-port as central and northern harvests enter the market.
-
November–January 2026: prices likely in the range of $220–230 per ton CPT-port, reflecting seasonal patterns.
-
Limiting factor: the entry of U.S. corn, which will exceed EU demand and put pressure on prices.
Key Takeaway for Investors and Traders
The EU’s need for Ukrainian corn creates a window of opportunity for exporters and logistics companies. Despite global competition, Ukraine is positioned as a priority supplier for Europe due to geographic proximity, logistics flexibility, and strong harvest volumes.
Outlook: Stable demand from the EU, combined with competitive Ukrainian offers, will keep Ukraine at the center of Europe’s corn import strategy through the 2025/26 season.
