1. Western “Maximum Pressure” (Low Probability)
| Core idea | Western allies supply Ukraine with decisive firepower, ignore Moscow’s nuclear threats and tighten sanctions to choke off Russian revenues and technology. |
|---|---|
| Result | Russia halts hostilities, accepts the current front line, and enters peace talks. Ukraine keeps its sovereignty but not all occupied territories. |
| Likelihood | Unlikely, says Welt—NATO consensus for such escalation is missing. |
2. Russian Military Victory via Western Disengagement (Medium Probability)
| Core idea | A U-turn in U.S. policy—driven by a future administration eager for deals in the Arctic or critical-minerals—removes most pressure on Moscow. |
|---|---|
| Result | Russia overruns new regions, possibly landlocking Ukraine. Washington blames Kyiv for provoking the war; sanctions fade. |
| Likelihood | More plausible than scenario 1, given isolationist currents in U.S. politics, the paper notes. |
3. “Amputated Ukraine” & Frozen Conflict (Most Likely—≈65%)
| Core idea | Protracted fighting meets dwindling Western aid. Kyiv faces mounting losses while partners push for a ceasefire to stem costs and economic fallout. |
|---|---|
| Result | Talks begin “under duress”; Ukraine cedes territory, hostilities freeze along the contact line without a formal peace treaty. Europe and the U.S. gain relative economic relief and stability. |
| Likelihood | Welt assigns the highest probability, arguing it satisfies Western risk-management and Russia’s minimum objectives. |
Context
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Resource drain & Middle-East escalation: Both factors sap Western bandwidth and shape the calculus.
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Russian signaling: Putin maintains that further delays only worsen Kyiv’s bargaining position.
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U.S. Senate: Sanctions decisions now postponed until July, reflecting shifting global priorities.
Bottom line: Absent a decisive Western arms surge, Welt sees an asymmetric stalemate leading to a pressured settlement as the conflict’s most probable end-state.
