Market Overview
In late September 2025, the Ukrainian dairy market reached a temporary balance between supply and demand, leading to the stabilization of raw milk purchase prices.
While the domestic market remains active, export opportunities have declined sharply due to falling global dairy prices. This situation creates uncertainty for producers heading into October, when increased imports may pressure domestic prices further.
Profitability Drivers
According to analysts, the operating profitability of milk production rose in September.
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Key factor: a drop in feed prices, rather than an increase in raw milk prices.
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This helped dairy farms improve margins despite weak export dynamics.
Production Dynamics
Data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine shows:
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January–August 2025: 4.7 million tons of raw milk produced (4.8% less than in 2024).
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Agricultural enterprises: produced 2.1 million tons in 8 months (+5.8% YoY).
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August vs. July: supply volumes grew by 7.2%.
Livestock Trends
As of September 1, 2025:
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Total cow population: 1.13 million heads (-9.8% YoY).
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Agricultural enterprises: slight growth (+0.7%) to 0.38 million heads.
This demonstrates a shift from household farms to industrial-scale enterprises, which are gradually stabilizing the sector despite wartime challenges.
Challenges for the Dairy Sector
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War-related stagnation: Ongoing conflict continues to disrupt logistics and investment.
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Export limits: The EU plans to temporarily restore quotas for Ukrainian agricultural products, which may restrict dairy exports.
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Import risks: Potential surplus of raw materials on the domestic market could put pressure on prices.
Outlook
The Ukrainian dairy industry is adapting to wartime constraints, showing resilience through higher productivity in enterprises and cost optimization. However, the sector’s recovery will depend on:
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Global dairy price stabilization.
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Export access to EU and other markets.
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Domestic demand growth and government support measures.
✅ Bottom line: Milk production in Ukraine has become more profitable due to falling feed costs, but the industry faces risks from imports, shrinking herds, and limited exports under EU quotas.
