In 2020, the global economy fell 3.5% because of the coronavirus pandemic. At the time, World Bank economists called what happened the largest recession since World War II.
According to the World Bank's forecast, Ukraine's GDP in 2021 is expected to grow by 4.1% and by 3.7% in 2022. The National Bank of Ukraine forecasts that Ukraine's economy will grow by 3.8% in 2021.
As for the low-income countries, the growth rate there will be the lowest over the past 20 years, not counting the recession of last year. It will be 2.9% in aggregate compared to a growth of 0.7% in 2020. The World Bank identifies 25 such countries. Among them - Afghanistan, Madagascar, Sudan, Tajikistan, Uganda, Ethiopia.
The US and China are projected to account for more than a quarter of global growth in 2021, with the U.S. contribution nearly tripling from the 2015-2019 average.
Experts expect the highest GDP growth in 2021 in China — by 8.5%. In addition, India and the US may show high figures — 8.3 and 6.8%, respectively.
China's economy also posted a positive 2.3% last year, while in the last two, GDP collapsed by 7.3% and 3.5%, respectively.
According to a World Bank forecast, Mexico and Argentina, whose economies shrank 8.3% and 9.9%, respectively, in 2020, will not reach pre-coronary performance this year.
"Global growth in 2021 will be more robust than previously estimated. Rapid progress in vaccination has helped improve the outlook in many countries; however, this is mostly for advanced economies," said the June World Economic Outlook report
However, many emerging markets and developing nations will continue to struggle to cope with the effects of COVID-19, the World Bank expects.
Analysts of the organization note that the global recovery still depends on the risks of worsening COVID-19, particularly from possible new pandemics waves. It will also be affected by financial stress amid high levels of debt in developing countries.