Key Takeaways
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Under-used capacity: Private defense plants idled 63 % of their lines in 2024—1.7 million drones and EW units went unbuilt.
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Three export models on the table:
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Case-by-case export permits
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Quota-linked exports (e.g., up to 50 % of confirmed domestic orders)
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20 % export duty to fund the army
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Economic upside: TSU estimates $2 billion in 2024 export revenue was left on the table.
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Strategic gain: Access to EU’s €800 bn ReArmy Europe budget—up to €150 bn earmarked for Ukrainian firms.
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Security safeguards: Exports limited to NATO-aligned buyers, full end-user checks, and SBU/General Staff sign-off.
Why the Debate Now?
| Factor | Impact |
|---|---|
| State budget gap | Gov’t can’t absorb full output; firms risk layoffs & brain-drain |
| Russian competition | Moscow closed $55 bn in arms deals since 2021, showcasing drones at global expos |
| Allied demand | EU, U.S. partners need combat-proven UAVs and EW kits |
Kateryna Mykhalko, TSU:
“We’re not beggars—we’re partners. Ukraine should export security, not just request aid.”
Voices From the Field
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Manufacturers
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3DTech CEO Roman Aharkov: Export volumes would slash unit costs for the Ukrainian army.
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TSU open letter: Transparent rules and NATO-style standards will turn exports into a diplomatic lever.
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Military Personnel
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UAV officer Andrii Onistrat: “The real risk is losing our know-how, not our hardware.”
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Volunteers
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Maria Berlinska, Victory Drones: Exports forge alliances and fund R&D—“a basket of apples traded for oranges we lack.”
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Managing Public Perception
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Messaging Strategy: Emphasize that only surplus output will be sold; proceeds finance more gear for Ukrainian troops.
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Counter-IPSO Plan: Pre-empt narratives that frame exports as profiteering while soldiers fight.
Next Steps for Policymakers
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Select an export model and publish clear licensing criteria.
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Set up a rapid-response interagency unit (MoD, SBU, MFA) to vet buyers within 30 days.
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Launch a public-education campaign explaining how export revenue loops back into defense.
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Engage EU & U.S. partners to lock in first-mover contracts and co-production deals.
Bottom Line
Opening controlled arms exports could keep Ukraine’s defense plants humming, fund the military, and cement Kyiv’s place in the global security supply chain—if the government balances transparency, battlefield needs, and public trust.
