Fed Decision and Global Impact
The US Federal Reserve reduced its key interest rate by 25 basis points to a new range of 4.00–4.25%.
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Lower rates traditionally make the dollar less attractive to investors.
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As a result, the US currency weakened on global markets, impacting Ukraine’s foreign exchange sector.
Effect on the Hryvnia
According to economist Oleg Getman, the changes in Ukraine’s currency market were visible almost immediately:
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The hryvnia strengthened against the dollar, reflecting the global weakening of the US currency.
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However, the hryvnia lost ground to the euro, as the dollar-euro exchange rate shifted in favor of the European currency.
“We saw the changes in the hryvnia-dollar and hryvnia-euro exchange rates even before the Fed’s official decision, as the markets anticipated the move,” Getman explained.
Why the Fed Rate Matters
The Fed’s key rate is one of the main instruments for regulating the US economy. It determines the cost of interbank lending and influences:
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Global capital flows;
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Investor appetite for risky vs. safe assets;
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Relative strength of the dollar, euro, and gold.
For Ukraine, these shifts directly affect currency stability and import/export competitiveness.
Exchange Rates as of September 18
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Banks: Dollar — 41.00 / 41.50 UAH; Euro — 48.45 / 49.25 UAH.
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Black Market: Dollar — 41.33 / 41.37 UAH; Euro — 48.70 / 48.90 UAH.
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Exchangers: Dollar — 40.55 / 41.45 UAH; Euro — 47.75 / 49.30 UAH.
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NBU Official Rate: Dollar — 41.19 UAH; Euro — 48.77 UAH.
Overall trend: the hryvnia is slightly stronger against the dollar, but weaker against the euro compared to the beginning of the week.
Strategic Outlook for Ukrainians
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Short term: The hryvnia is benefiting from a weaker dollar.
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Medium term: If the Fed continues its easing cycle, risky assets (stocks, crypto) may attract more capital, while the dollar could face further pressure.
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Euro factor: Ukrainians should expect fluctuations, as the euro gains on the back of the dollar’s weakening.
