s the polls close, all eyes will be on the race between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump. This article provides a comprehensive overview of the election details, polling data, candidate promises, and the expected timeline for results.
When Are the Elections and What Are the Ratings?
Election Date and Process
The 2024 US presidential election will take place on November 5, 2024. Voters will not only choose the president but also decide the composition of the House of Representatives and a third of the Senate. The winning candidate will be inaugurated on January 20, 2025, beginning a four-year term in the White House.
Polling Station Hours
Polling station hours vary by state but generally open at 6:00 AM local time (equivalent to 1:00 PM Kyiv time) and close around 7:00 PM local time. Voters can cast their ballots in person, through early voting, or by mail. As of November 3, over 75 million Americans had already exercised their right to vote early.
Swing States and Their Impact
Swing states are pivotal in determining the election outcome due to their narrow voting margins. Key swing states for 2024 include:
- Pennsylvania (19 Electoral College votes)
- Arizona
- Georgia
- Wisconsin
- Nevada
- Michigan
- Ohio
These states often decide the election due to their significant Electoral College weight and historically close races.
Current Polling Data
Polls indicate a tightly contested race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. According to a Wall Street Journal poll conducted last week:
- Trump: 47%
- Harris: 45%
The margin falls within the statistical error, suggesting an almost even split among voters.
Recent surveys from Times/YouGov show slight leads in various states:
Harris leads in:
- Wisconsin (49% to 45%)
- Pennsylvania (49% to 46%)
- Michigan (48% to 45%)
- Nevada (48% to 47%)
Trump leads in:
- North Carolina (49% to 48%)
- Georgia (48% to 47%)
- Arizona remains tied at 48%
An NBC poll a day before the election reported a national tie at 49% each for Trump and Harris, highlighting the race's competitiveness.
When Will Exit Polls and Election Results Be Available?
Exit Polls
Exit polls are expected to begin around 5:00 PM EST (midnight Kyiv time) after the polls close. These polls provide early indications of voter preferences, particularly in states with clear leads for one candidate.
Election Night and Results
- Vote Counting: Most states start counting votes immediately after polls close. Time zone differences mean that East Coast states like New York and Florida finish voting before states like Alaska and Hawaii.
- Immediate Results: If a candidate secures a clear majority in key swing states, the winner can be announced on election night or early the next morning.
- Contested Outcomes: In close races or contested results, final outcomes may take days or weeks, especially if legal challenges arise.
Historical Context
- 2020 Election: Joe Biden was declared the winner four days after the election once Pennsylvania's results were finalized.
- 2016 Election: Donald Trump was declared the winner the day after the election as results from crucial states became apparent.
What Donald Trump Promises
Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, has outlined several key promises aimed at reviving the American economy and strengthening national security:
Economic Revitalization
- Tariff Implementation: Imposing tariffs of 10% to 20% on all imports and up to 60% on goods from China to protect American jobs and stimulate domestic production.
- Tax Cuts: Restoring and expanding the tax breaks introduced in 2017, including lowering the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% to enhance competitiveness and attract businesses to the United States.
- Energy Cost Reduction: Promising to cut Americans' energy costs by half within a year, aiming to lower gasoline prices below $2 per gallon.
Foreign Policy and Defense
- NATO Criticism: Criticizing NATO members for not meeting their military spending commitments of 2% of GDP, threatening to withdraw support and reduce reliance on collective defense mechanisms.
- Military Aid to Ukraine: Threatening to end US support for Ukraine, potentially pressuring Kyiv to negotiate peace terms favorable to Moscow.
Immigration Reform
- Deportation Plans: Promising the largest deportation in American history, overhauling refugee programs, and ending birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants.
Social Policies
- Reproductive Rights: Opposing abortion rights and advocating for restrictions on reproductive health services.
Historical Implications
- Legal Precedents: If elected, Trump could become the first president to be convicted of a felony, given his existing charges in multiple criminal cases.
What Kamala Harris Promises
Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, offers a platform focused on economic equity, social justice, and strengthening international alliances:
Economic Policies
- Tax Reform: Opposes Trump's tariff plans, labeling them as a "national sales tax" that would cost the average family $4,000 annually. Instead, Harris proposes:
- Tax Credits: Introducing a $6,000 tax credit for parents of newborns to aid with expenses.
- Small Business Support: Providing a $50,000 tax credit to small businesses to foster job creation.
- Progressive Taxation: Raising taxes on high earners while offering significant benefits to low- and middle-income families.
Energy and Environment
- Sustainable Energy: Continuing the Biden administration's support for renewable energy and sustainable practices, ensuring a transition to greener technologies.
Foreign Policy and Defense
- Support for Israel: Vows to continue supporting Israel's right to self-defense, aligning with longstanding Democratic policies.
- Migration Policies: Building on Biden's efforts, Harris aims to maintain controlled migration flows and improve border security without extreme measures.
Social Justice and Health
- Reproductive Rights: Committing to restoring reproductive rights and vetoing any national abortion bans, ensuring women's autonomy over their health decisions.
- Human Rights: Advocating for comprehensive human rights protections and equitable policies across all sectors.
International Relations
- Support for Ukraine: Emphasizing unwavering support for Ukraine, Harris pledges to "ensure Ukraine's victory in this war" and warns that a Trump presidency could jeopardize Ukraine's progress and safety.
Historical Significance
- First Female President: Kamala Harris could become the first female president in US history.
- Diversity Milestone: She would also be the first black woman and the first person of South Asian descent to hold the presidency.
Impact on Ukraine
The US elections hold significant implications for Ukraine, particularly regarding military and economic support:
- Policy Continuity: A Harris presidency would likely ensure the continuation and expansion of US support for Ukraine against Russian aggression.
- Defense Aid: Commitments like the Pentagon's recent funding for mobile fire teams and drone defense systems are crucial for Ukraine's resilience.
- Economic Assistance: Policies favoring economic equity and sustainable development could enhance Ukraine's integration into European and global markets.
Conversely, a Trump victory could lead to shifts in US foreign policy, potentially reducing support for Ukraine and altering the geopolitical landscape in Eastern Europe.
When Will the Results Be Known?
Exit Polls and Preliminary Results
- Exit Polls: Expected to start appearing around 5:00 PM EST (midnight Kyiv time), providing initial insights, especially in states with clear leads.
- State-by-State Tally: As votes are counted, media outlets will provide real-time updates on the election's progress.
Official Declaration
- Clear Victory: If a candidate secures a decisive lead in key swing states, the election winner can be declared on election night or the following morning.
- Contested Results: In closely contested races, final results may take several days or weeks, particularly if legal challenges or recounts are necessary.
Historical Timelines
- 2020 Election: Joe Biden was declared the winner four days after the election following the finalization of Pennsylvania's results.
- 2016 Election: Donald Trump was declared the winner the day after the election as results from key states became clear.
Conclusion
The 2024 US presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris stands as one of the most pivotal and closely watched races in recent history. With a nearly even split in polling data and the outcome hanging on the results of several critical swing states, the election's significance extends beyond national borders, particularly affecting Ukraine's future amid ongoing conflicts.
As voters head to the polls on November 5, the world watches closely, anticipating a result that will shape the geopolitical and economic landscape for years to come. Whether Harris becomes the first female president or Trump secures another term with historic legal implications, the election's outcome will resonate globally, influencing international alliances and domestic policies alike.
