This substantial increase is primarily attributed to the reopening of the sea export corridor in August 2023, enabling more efficient transportation of raw materials to international markets. The data, released by the State Customs Service, highlights a robust recovery in Ukraine's metallurgical sector despite ongoing challenges.
Quarterly Export Breakdown
The annual growth in iron ore exports is reflected in the quarterly performance:
Q1 2024:
- Exports: 9 million tons
- Year-on-Year Increase: 146.2%
- Quarter-on-Quarter Growth: 76.3%
Q2 2024:
- Exports: 9.31 million tons
- Year-on-Year Increase: 99.5%
- Quarter-on-Quarter Growth: 3.4%
Q3 2024:
- Exports: 6.93 million tons
- Year-on-Year Increase: 60.5%
- Quarter-on-Quarter Decline: 25.5%
Q4 2024:
- Exports: 8.45 million tons
- Year-on-Year Increase: 65.4%
- Quarter-on-Quarter Growth: 21.8%
Throughout the year, Ukraine maintained a relatively stable export volume, averaging between 8.5 to 9.3 million tons per quarter. However, the third quarter experienced a notable decline of 25.5% compared to the previous quarter, largely due to weakened global steel and iron ore markets, particularly the slowdown in China's steel industry—the primary consumer of Ukrainian raw materials.
Key Export Markets
In 2024, Ukraine's iron ore exports were distributed across several key markets:
- China: 15.09 million tons
- Slovakia: 4.97 million tons
- Poland: 5.09 million tons
China remained the dominant market, accounting for nearly 45% of Ukraine's iron ore exports. The reopening of the sea corridor has been instrumental in restoring trade flows with China, which had been severely disrupted since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. Slovakia and Poland followed as significant importers, benefiting from Ukraine's enhanced export capabilities.
December 2024: A Record Month
December 2024 marked a peak in Ukraine's iron ore export performance, with 3.449 million tons shipped— the highest monthly export volume since February 2022. This figure represents a 114.6% increase compared to December 2023 and a 40.2% rise from November 2024. The robust December exports were driven by strong demand from China, which accounted for 2.05 million tons (+101% month-on-month), followed by Slovakia with 518.14 thousand tons (+34.1%) and Poland with 395.24 thousand tons (-3.3%).
Revenue Growth
The financial impact of increased iron ore exports was substantial. In 2024, revenue from iron ore exports reached $2.8 billion, marking a 58.7% year-on-year increase. December alone contributed $273.06 million, up 91.6% from the previous year and 45% from November.
Challenges Ahead
Despite the impressive growth in 2024, the outlook for 2025 remains cautious. The GMK Center predicts that Ukraine's metallurgical industry may face a 16% decline in exports due to rising energy tariffs, increased cargo transportation costs (UZ tariff), and declining global prices. These factors are expected to reduce foreign exchange earnings and potentially increase the dollar exchange rate, posing significant financial challenges for Ukraine.
Historical Context
In contrast to the strong performance in 2024, Ukraine's iron ore exports had been on a downward trend in previous years. In 2023, exports decreased by 26% to 17.75 million tons, and compared to the pre-war year 2021, raw material exports had plummeted by 60%. Revenue from iron ore exports fell by 39.4% year-on-year, reaching $1.77 billion.
Leading Producers
Ukraine's iron ore production is spearheaded by several major enterprises, including:
- Ingulets Mining and Processing Plant
- Kryvyi Rih Mining and Processing Plant
- Poltava Mining and Processing Plant
- Eristivskyi Mining and Processing Plant
- Pivchnyi Mining and Processing Plant
- Tsentralnyi Mining and Processing Plant
- Pivdennyi Mining and Processing Plant
- ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih
- Sukha Balka
- Rudomine
Conclusion
Ukraine's iron ore export surge in 2024 underscores the resilience and adaptability of its metallurgical industry amidst ongoing geopolitical and economic challenges. The reopening of the sea export corridor has played a pivotal role in restoring export volumes and revenue streams. However, the anticipated hurdles in 2025 highlight the need for strategic measures to sustain growth and mitigate the impact of rising costs and volatile global markets. Continued support for the industry and effective management of export logistics will be crucial for maintaining Ukraine's competitive edge in the global iron ore market.
