1. Headline Findings
| Indicator | May 2025 | April 2025 | May 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI) | 50.8 | 49.4 | 48.0 |
| Sector Coverage | Construction, Industry, Trade, Services | Only three sectors positive | All sectors negative |
Any reading above 50 denotes expansion.
2. Drivers of Improved Sentiment
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Firm consumer demand across domestic markets.
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Stable energy supply, limiting production disruptions.
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Timely international financial inflows, supporting liquidity.
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Seasonal uptick in construction and trade.
Restraints: heightened missile attacks on infrastructure, FX and inflation uncertainty, skilled-labour shortages.
3. Sector View
| Sector | Outlook | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| Construction | Most optimistic | Surge in new orders and materials purchases; minor cost pressure from contractors. |
| Industry | Fourth straight positive month | Consistent output and new orders; inventories still viewed pessimistically. |
| Trade | Positive for third month | Slower turnover growth expected; firms plan to trim stock levels and margins. |
| Services | First positive reading since May 2024 | Revival in logistics and demand driving higher order books. |
4. Price & Employment Expectations
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Input costs: Industry, trade, and services foresee slower cost growth; construction anticipates a modest acceleration.
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Output prices: Most sectors aim for moderate increases; trade projects narrower margins.
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Staffing: Construction plans net hiring; other sectors expect modest head-count reductions.
5. Survey Parameters
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Conducted: 5–23 May 2025
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Sample: 565 enterprises
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Source: National Bank of Ukraine (monthly business outlook)
Note: Results represent respondent views and are not official NBU forecasts.
Positive readings across all four sectors signal a tentative broad-based recovery, though the outlook remains sensitive to security risks and macro-financial stability.
