Key numbers (1 July – 2 July 2025)
| Commodity | 2025/26 exports, kt | 2024/25 same-period, kt | Δ y/y |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat | 22 | 245 | ▼ −223 kt (-91 %) |
| Maize | 18 | 468 | ▼ −450 kt (-96 %) |
| Flour (grain-equiv.) | 0.3 | 1.2 | ▼ −0.9 kt (-75 %) |
| Total grain & pulses | 40 | 718 | ▼ −678 kt (-94 %) |
Source: Ministry of Agrarian Policy & Food of Ukraine
Why the sharp drop?
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Seasonality & stock depletion: 2024/25 ended with historically low carry-over stocks; early-season exports traditionally minimal until new-crop volumes reach ports.
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Late harvest window: Winter crops are 7-10 days behind average after a cool, wet spring.
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Logistics reshuffle: Traders adjusting contracts to the renewed Black Sea “safe corridor” and Danube capacities; forward freight slots weighted toward late July/August.
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Quota management: Exporters pacing wheat loadings ahead of EU safeguard thresholds that reset on 1 July.
Market implications for Q3-Q4 2025
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Price support short-term: FOB Pivdennyi bids for 12.5 % wheat firmed to $233–236 t amid thin spot supply.
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Freight & insurance planning: Shippers prioritise Panamax stems for late summer; Danube barge rates already 8–10 % above June levels.
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Storage considerations: On-farm silos may fill quickly if export flow lags harvest—basis premiums possible in central regions by August.
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Policy watch: Kyiv’s talks with Brussels on revised safeguard quotas (wheat, maize, oats) will shape autumn shipment strategies.
What to monitor next
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Harvest pace & yields (MinAgro weekly bulletins).
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Danube draft limitations as water levels drop in late summer.
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EU demand pull once Spanish and Italian importers conclude quality tests on 2025 crop.
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Currency dynamics: Any hryvnia weakening could accelerate farmer selling and bolster port line-ups.
“The first-week lull isn’t unusual in a low-carry year. Once big farms finish winter-crop cuts, we expect 4 – 5 M t/month flows, provided the corridor remains stable.” — Kyiv-based export trader
