Ukrainian steelmakers expect a moderate recovery of production in 2026 and a parallel surge in demand for steel scrap. Against the backdrop of war damage and reconstruction needs, mills are preparing to ramp up output while warning that the domestic scrap deficit will only intensify unless collection and export rules are adjusted.
Production plans and capacity constraints
Industry representatives underline that steel capacity in Ukraine is still far from pre-war levels. Plants operate with damaged infrastructure, logistical bottlenecks and cautious working capital policies. Nevertheless, companies are preparing to increase crude steel and rolled products output in 2026 as construction, infrastructure and energy projects move from planning to execution.
For investors this means that the cycle is shifting from survival to selective growth. The sector is unlikely to return to old volumes quickly, but even a measured recovery requires reliable access to raw materials – above all to obsolete scrap generated inside the country.
Scrap deficit as a structural risk
Steelmakers report that scrap collection in the domestic market is already lagging behind demand. The combination of population decline, reduced industrial activity and informal shadow exports limits available volumes. Producers insist that if current trends continue, the gap between the needs of electric-arc furnaces and local scrap supply will widen in 2026.
- rising demand for long and flat products for reconstruction;
- higher loading of electric-arc capacities that rely almost entirely on scrap;
- competition for raw material between Ukrainian and foreign buyers;
- pressure to improve collection, sorting and logistics infrastructure.
Regulation, trade flows and investment opportunities
The industry is pushing for a predictable framework for scrap exports and long-term incentives for licensed collectors and processors. From an investor perspective, this opens several niches: regional scrap aggregation centres, modern processing yards near rail hubs, and joint projects with steelmakers to secure captive supply.
If Ukraine manages to balance domestic demand with transparent trade rules, the steel sector can become one of the anchors of industrial recovery. For financial and strategic investors, 2026 may be a window to enter the value chain not only at the level of mills, but also in upstream scrap collection, processing and logistics assets.
