Despite a slight decline in overall imports compared to 2023, China continues to rely heavily on Ukrainian sunflower meal, along with shipments from Russia, Bulgaria, and Kazakhstan. Below is a comprehensive overview of the trade data, price comparisons, and market distributions based on Chinese customs statistics.
1. Total Imports & Yearly Trends
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Overall Decline in 2024
- According to the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China, 2.53 million tons of sunflower cake and meal were imported in 2024 – reflecting a 14% drop compared to 2023.
- December 2024 shipments amounted to 127,200 tons, a steep 63.9% decline from December 2023.
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Six-Year Expansion
- Despite the downturn in 2024, the past six years saw significant growth in sunflower meal imports to China.
- The reduction in 2024 may be linked to market volatility, changing demand, or global trade disruptions.
2. Key Exporters to China
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Ukraine: 72.4% Share
- 1.83 million tons came from Ukraine, solidifying its position as the top exporter to China.
- Even with decreasing monthly volumes, Ukrainian sunflower meal continues to dominate the Chinese market.
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Russia: 14%
- With 354,900 tons shipped, Russia ranks second among major suppliers, maintaining a moderate market share.
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Bulgaria: 11.6%
- Bulgaria exported 292,100 tons, positioning itself as the third-largest source of sunflower meal.
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Kazakhstan: 2%
- Kazakhstan contributed 50,600 tons, the smallest reported share but at the lowest price point.
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Other Countries
- No data suggests that any other origins supplied sunflower cake and meal to China in 2024.
3. Pricing Overview
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Average Import Cost
- In 2024, the average cost of sunflower cake and meal imported by China was $325.9 per ton, marking a 17.2% decrease compared to 2023.
- For December alone, the average import price dropped further to $292 per ton, down 25.9% year-over-year.
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Comparative Prices by Origin
- Kazakhstan offered the lowest average price at $217.2 per ton.
- Ukraine’s shipments followed at $324.6 per ton – close to the overall average.
- Russia sold at slightly higher rates: $331.6 per ton.
- Bulgaria supplied sunflower meal at the highest average cost, $346.5 per ton.
4. Market Implications
- Ukraine’s Dominance: With over 70% market share in China’s sunflower meal imports, Ukraine’s competitive edge remains strong, despite any short-term fluctuations.
- Price Sensitivity: Lower global commodity prices and regional supply factors contributed to an overall decrease in import costs. The price differentials among exporters may influence future purchasing decisions by Chinese buyers.
- Global Competition: Russia, Bulgaria, and Kazakhstan continue to expand or hold niche positions in the Chinese market. Their varying price points and production capacities shape the competitive dynamics.
Conclusion
Despite a notable 14% decline in China’s overall sunflower meal imports for 2024, Ukraine upholds its position as the leading supplier, catering to 72.4% of Chinese demand. Lower global prices and shifting market conditions influenced both volumes and average costs. As Russia, Bulgaria, and Kazakhstan remain key players, the market in the coming months and years will hinge on price competitiveness, production capabilities, and evolving Chinese dietary or industrial needs for sunflower byproducts.
