War Outlook and Business Planning
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29% of companies build their plans expecting that hostilities may end in 2026.
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19% do not expect an end to the war next year.
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52% make no forecasts about the war’s duration.
This cautious stance underscores the difficulty of long-term planning in wartime, though optimism is gradually growing.
Hryvnia Exchange Rate Forecast
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Average 2026 business forecast: ₴46/$
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2025 forecast: ₴44/$
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2024 forecast: ₴41/$
The gradual weakening reflects ongoing inflationary and war-related pressures, though expectations remain within a controlled band.
Revenue and Growth Expectations
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77% of executives expect revenue growth in hryvnia (vs. 72% in 2025).
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12% expect decline (down from 15%).
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Growth forecasts:
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Up to 10%: 30% of directors
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11–20%: 33%
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Over 21%: 14%
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No change: 11%
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Revenue growth expectations:
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60% in physical volumes.
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55% in US dollars (up from 43% in 2025).
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15% expect decline in both.
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Investment Trends
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20% increase in the number of companies planning large projects.
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Average project size: $14M (vs. $9M in 2025).
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Social investments:
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2026 – 55% of companies, average 3% of revenue.
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2025 – 59%, average 6% of revenue.
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2024 – 65%.
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While strategic investments are rising, spending on social programs continues to fall.
Digital Transformation and AI Adoption
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74% of businesses plan to use AI tools in 2026.
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Key uses:
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Training and HR
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Analytics and routine task automation
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Sales and procurement planning
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Marketing, accounting, and customer communications
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AI adoption is seen as a response to staff shortages and as a driver of efficiency.
Business Priorities for Government in 2026
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Fight against corruption – 60%
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Judicial reform & rule of law – 54%
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EU integration commitments – 36%
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Macroeconomic stability – 35%
The inclusion of EU accession obligations highlights the growing importance of European integration for Ukrainian business strategy.
Key Takeaway
Despite the fourth year of war, Ukrainian businesses are planning for growth, expansion, and digital transformation. The expected ₴46/$ rate reflects cautious realism, but forecasts for higher revenues, larger investment projects, and strong AI adoption show resilience and confidence.
“We see stable and somewhat encouraging forecasts for the next year from businesses that continue to work and make plans in Ukraine… Companies predict improved results and count on the government to continue reforms and fulfill EU integration obligations,” said Anna Derevyanko, EBA Executive Director.
