CBAM is expected to reduce Ukraine exports of steel products by about 2.5 million tons by 2030.
Hot rolled coil with carbon intensity around 2.3 t CO2 faces CBAM costs of 10-15 euro per ton higher than other importers.
For long products, average intensity of 2.1 t CO2 implies CBAM payments around 61 euro per ton, much higher than competitors using electric arc furnaces.
Flat product prices rose by about 110 euro per ton since October 2025, but this only partly offsets CBAM costs.
Analysts expect significant export declines in early 2026 and further pressure in 2029-2030 as CBAM factors tighten.
