Ukraine’s deepening demographic crisis
Ukraine has been facing long-term demographic decline, and the full-scale war has made the situation even more acute. According to Lidia Tkachenko, leading researcher at the Ptukha Institute of Demography and Social Research, the country’s problems go beyond low birth rates.
A major factor is short life expectancy, especially among men. Even before the war, Ukrainians lived on average 10 years less than citizens of EU countries. While there was some improvement around 2007–2008, indicators quickly worsened.
Labor migration and workforce shortages
The war has caused not only direct losses but also a mass exodus of Ukrainians abroad. Current estimates show a labor shortage ranging from 300,000 to several million people.
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More than 10 million Ukrainians still pay the Unified Social Contribution, including many who now live abroad.
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The economy remains dominated by agriculture and trade — sectors with low productivity and wages.
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Salaries in critical sectors like education and medicine are even lower than in agriculture, despite the high qualifications and workload of employees.
This imbalance, Tkachenko argues, is abnormal and unsustainable for a modern economy.
Decline of industry and wage disparities
Ukrainian industry continues to shrink, with fewer people willing or able to work in manufacturing. Public perception has shifted, with office work seen as the norm and factory jobs treated as an exception.
The shortage of skilled workers is compounded by low wages and poor conditions. Employers often avoid investing in their workforce, creating what Tkachenko calls the illusion of labor shortages, when in reality, businesses are unwilling to offer competitive pay or benefits.
“The conditions are often feudal, with minimal benefits and no social guarantees,” she stresses.
Immigration: limited prospects
Unlike France or the UK, Ukraine does not have a colonial past and therefore cannot expect a strong influx of migrants. Wages remain too low to attract foreign specialists, and even simplified citizenship procedures are unlikely to change this significantly.
The return of Ukrainian refugees after the war is also uncertain. It will depend on policies of host countries and how well Ukrainians integrate abroad. Surveys showing intentions to return are often emotional rather than realistic.
Working pensioners and low life expectancy
Another concerning trend is the rise in working pensioners: around 30% of pension recipients continue to work, largely because pensions of 3–5 thousand UAH per month are insufficient to cover basic needs.
Life expectancy data underline the crisis:
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Ukraine (2024): 64 years on average (57 for men, 71 for women).
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EU countries: over 80 years for men in France and Sweden.
Tkachenko attributes the decline not only to the war but also to emotional exhaustion, stress, cardiovascular diseases, mental health issues, and lifestyle factors such as smoking and heavy labor among men.
Strategy without structural reforms won’t work
Ukraine approved a demographic development strategy in 2024, but experts warn that without deep reforms in:
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economic structure,
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wage policy,
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social security systems,
there will be no sustainable improvement.
“Without serious changes, positive demographic shifts will remain unattainable,” Tkachenko concludes.
