This comes as the temporary duty- and quota-free arrangements—introduced to bolster Ukraine's economy after the 2022 Russian invasion—are due to expire on June 5.
Key Points
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Proposal Under the Association Agreement
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Olof Hill, a spokesman for the European Commission, confirmed that Brussels is “finalizing work on the proposal” and will present it to Ukraine “soon.”
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The Commission’s plan is to embed trade concessions within the Association Agreement framework, thus moving beyond the temporary ATMs.
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Timeline & Consultations
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Although the Commission aims to table its proposal before the June 5 expiry, Hill stated he cannot specify exact timing.
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The proposal must undergo normal EU legislative procedures, including consultations with member states. Early discussions are already ongoing to ensure progress “before it reaches any formal procedure.”
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Current Duty-Free Measures
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Since 2022, the EU has lifted tariffs and quotas on Ukrainian goods in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion.
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These measures are set to end on June 5, leaving limited time to extend or replace them.
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Concerns & Context
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Potential “Emergency Brake” Mechanism
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During the last renewal of the trade measures, certain EU countries—like Poland, France, and Hungary—pushed for an emergency brake that would reimpose tariffs on key Ukrainian exports if import volumes exceeded specific thresholds.
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Recent Unilateral Import Bans
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Two years ago, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Bulgaria imposed unilateral bans on some Ukrainian agricultural imports, such as grain, contravening the EU’s common trade policy.
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Ukraine’s Position
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Kyiv has warned of “truly devastating” consequences if the current duty-free arrangements lapse without a new EU framework.
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Ukrainian officials emphasize how vital the European market is for the country’s exporters and economic stability.
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Next Steps
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Formal Proposal: The Commission’s package will be revealed “soon” to both Ukraine and EU member states.
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Legislative Passage: After stakeholder consultations, the measure will need approval from the European Parliament and/or the Council, depending on the legal approach.
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Avoiding Trade Gaps: With the June 5 deadline fast approaching, the Commission aims to prevent disruptions to Ukrainian exports by swiftly transitioning to a lasting agreement.
Conclusion
As Ukraine’s duty-free status in the EU faces a looming expiration, the European Commission is preparing a long-term solution under the Association Agreement. If enacted in time, these reforms would solidify Ukraine’s access to EU markets, sidestepping potential disruptions to trade flows and ensuring continued economic support for Kyiv amid the ongoing conflict.
