State Tax Plans: The National Revenue Strategy 2024–2030
Back in December 2023, the government approved the National Revenue Strategy of Ukraine — a roadmap for tax reform until 2030. The aim is integration into the EU, budget stability and modernization of tax administration.
Key directions of reform include:
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Simplified taxation system
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abolition of simplified taxation for legal entities,
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higher rates for FOPs,
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mandatory RRO for all simplified taxpayers,
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VAT registration upon threshold exceedance,
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proof of goods’ origin.
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Personal income tax (PIT)
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progressive scale for higher incomes,
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replacement of non-taxable minimum with targeted social aid,
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stricter oversight of disguised employment,
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tax authorities’ access to bank account flows.
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Corporate taxation and incentives
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revision of investment tax regimes,
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adoption of EU rules for royalty taxation.
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Harmonization with EU law
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raising excise duties on fuel, alcohol, tobacco to EU minimum levels,
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modernizing property tax,
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higher environmental tax after the war.
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Digitalization and anti-corruption
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new e-audit, SAF-T UA reporting,
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HelpDesk for customs,
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stronger internal security units in customs and tax.
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Projected effect: +27% GDP revenues by 2030.
Business Reality: Sector Insights
Tobacco industry
Executives from Imperial Tobacco, BAT, Philip Morris and JTI agree on two priorities:
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predictable excise policy,
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effective fight against the 15–16% shadow market.
Sharp tax hikes (+44% in 2025, +16–26% expected in 2026) drive consumers to illegal products, costing the budget 25–30 billion UAH annually. Businesses call for:
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stronger BEB capacity,
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coordination between Tax Service, Police and Customs,
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strict liability for illicit trade,
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timely implementation of eExcise by 2026.
Metallurgy
Ferrexpo warns that VAT refund suspensions cut its business to a quarter of capacity, reducing socio-economic contribution by $180m in 2025 and up to $240m in 2026.
Food & catering
McDonald’s Ukraine doubled tax payments in 2024 (to UAH 2.6 bn) with 103m visitors. They stress:
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simplified EU-style reporting could bring SMEs out of the shadows,
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fair competition and regulatory stability are key for growth.
Fozzy Group points to “gray zones” — salaries in envelopes, fiscal evasion, counterfeit imports — that distort the retail market.
Medical services
Sinevo and DILA forecast +10–15% growth in 2026, provided stability holds. Concerns include:
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excessive payroll tax pushing wages into envelopes,
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VAT and smuggling evasion,
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non-transparent criteria for the “white business club”.
They support digital audit tools (E-audit, SAF-T UA) but warn they must be technically finalized before launch.
Beverage producers
Carlsberg and IDS Ukraine highlight balanced EU-style regulation, softer beer advertising rules, and a differentiated excise approach. Carlsberg alone paid UAH 3.4 bn in 2024, leading its sector.
Banks
FUIB and Raiffeisen emphasize:
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record defense spending → budget deficit > UAH 2 tn,
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risk of over-taxation (50% rate for banks vs 25%),
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unclear donor funding volumes,
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criteria of the “White Book” list not reflecting sector specifics.
Ride-hailing and IT
Uklon reports UAH 494m taxes in H1 2025, expects further growth, and backs draft law No. 14025 on automatic tax information exchange for digital platforms — projected to add +10 bn UAH to the budget.
The Intersection Point
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State strategy: EU harmonization, digitalization, higher excises, tighter PIT/CIT rules.
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Business reality: needs stability, fair enforcement, and shadow market elimination.
Both sides agree: predictability + effective fight against illegals = stronger revenue and better conditions for investment.
✅ Bottom line: Ukraine’s tax reform is ambitious, but unless enforcement shifts focus from compliant businesses to illegal markets, the risk remains that planned revenues will bypass the budget — into the shadows.
