However, broader global effects from ongoing customs wars could pose risks to Ukraine's economic recovery in the long term.
Ukraine's Direct Exposure to US Tariffs Is Limited
According to the NBU's latest Inflation Report, Ukrainian exports to the US account for a small share of the country’s total foreign trade. As a result, any direct hit from new tariffs will have little impact on national GDP.
"The direct impact of tariffs on the Ukrainian economy will be insignificant, since the volumes of domestic exports to the US market are quite small," the report states.
Moreover, some exporters may benefit by reorienting trade flows to alternative markets or taking advantage of reduced competition in the US market if other countries face even higher entry barriers.
Indirect Risks: Lower Demand from European Partners
While the direct effects are modest, the broader impact of global trade tensions could slow economic activity, especially in EU and Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries—key trading partners for Ukraine. This has contributed to the downward revision of Ukraine’s GDP growth forecast to 3.1% in 2025.
Still, the NBU expects a rebound starting in 2026, projecting accelerated growth both domestically and across major partner economies.
Key Strengths: Agrarian Exports and Business Adaptability
Ukraine’s agriculture-dominated export structure acts as a cushion against shifting trade policies. In addition, Ukrainian businesses have demonstrated strong adaptability since the onset of the full-scale invasion in 2022—quickly adjusting supply chains, logistics, and market strategies.
"The best confirmation of this is the rapid and successful transformations of production, logistics, and trade ties of Ukrainian enterprises during the full-scale war," the NBU emphasized.
Long-Term Risk: Deglobalization and Geopolitical Polarization
Despite the short-term resilience, the NBU warns of possible long-term risks stemming from global deglobalization and geopolitical fragmentation. As countries form regional alliances and political blocs, Ukraine could face restricted access to "unfriendly" markets and reduced international focus on its war with Russia.
"The emergence of new 'hot' spots may reduce attention to the Russian-Ukrainian war and weaken overall support for Ukraine," the central bank cautioned.
Conclusion
While Ukraine is well-positioned to weather the immediate effects of US tariff changes, the broader global shifts pose strategic challenges. Maintaining flexible trade policies, expanding into new markets, and ensuring international support will be key to sustaining long-term economic growth.
