However, the actual extraction of minerals under this partnership is unlikely to begin before 2040, according to estimates by Western analysts and industry insiders.
Why So Long?
The delay is due to several key factors:
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Up to 10 years will be needed for exploration, feasibility studies, and planning before mining can even begin.
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The war with Russia is ongoing, presenting serious logistical and security risks.
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Infrastructure across many resource-rich regions has been damaged or destroyed.
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Access to Soviet-era geological data remains restricted due to security concerns.
“These are new projects that require investment, feasibility studies and development. It’s a complex task in any case,” said Brian Menell, CEO of TechMet, a US-backed company gaining access to lithium projects in central Ukraine.
Oil and Gas May Come First
While rare earth and critical mineral extraction could take 15+ years, oil and gas exploration and production may progress more quickly due to:
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Existing infrastructure in select regions;
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Faster development cycles;
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More readily available geological data.
However, even in these sectors, geopolitical and economic challenges remain significant.
What the Deal Actually Covers
It’s important to clarify that the US-Ukraine subsoil agreement and the newly created Reconstruction Investment Fund apply only to new mineral projects. That means:
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Existing operations (e.g. Ferrexpo’s iron ore mines or Black Iron’s Shymanivske project) are not included;
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The fund will co-finance only new licenses issued after the agreement's ratification.
“The romantic idea of lithium deposits in Ukraine that can be easily developed is simply not true,” cautioned a mining company executive.
Strategic Benefits Still Matter
Despite the long timeline, the deal is still a strategic win for Ukraine:
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It shows long-term commitment from the US, including possible military aid tied to investment guarantees;
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It offers a framework for private capital to enter Ukraine once the security situation improves;
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It helps diversify Ukraine’s post-war economic recovery strategy.
“We would invest in Ukraine to support it, but not from the perspective of the best opportunity for us,” noted Australian mining magnate Andrew Forrest, who has donated $25 million to Ukraine.
Conclusion
While commercial mining under the US subsoil agreement may not begin until 2040, the legal framework, funding models, and diplomatic commitment behind the deal are already reshaping Ukraine’s investment image. Patience, transparency, and post-war stability will be crucial to turning these opportunities into reality.
