Polish oil and gas company Orlen is considering supplying up to 1 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas to Ukraine in 2026. Such a volume would cover a meaningful share of Ukraine’s annual import needs and provide additional flexibility during peak winter demand.
Under the preliminary concept, the resource would be sourced from Orlen’s portfolio—domestic production, European hub purchases, and LNG arriving through Polish terminals—then delivered via existing Poland–Ukraine interconnectors. Technically feasible routes include the Hermanowice–Drozdovychi corridor and adjacent points with available firm or interruptible capacities.
What it means for the market
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Diversification of sources. A larger EU-sourced share reduces dependency on single routes and improves risk balance.
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More competition, fairer pricing. Extra volumes raise liquidity on the domestic market, supporting market-based prices for industry and district heating.
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System flexibility. Imports from Poland can be combined with Ukraine’s underground gas storage and “customs warehouse” regime to smooth seasonal demand swings.
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LNG synergy. Utilization of Polish LNG capacity indirectly opens access to global spot cargoes and portfolio deliveries.
Next steps include agreeing commercial terms, booking cross-border capacity and delivery schedules, and coordinating with the TSOs and storage operator to optimize injection/withdrawal plans. The decision is expected to align with preparations for the 2026–27 heating season and industrial demand peaks.
