Political stability as a luxury
Political stability has traditionally been one of the most desirable characteristics for countries attracting foreign direct investment (FDI). Yet today, stability is more of a luxury than a norm: according to ACLED, around 200,000 cases of military and violent conflicts were recorded globally in 2024 — 25% more than in 2023 and nearly double compared to five years ago.
Still, FDI does not avoid risk zones. Some industries are accustomed to working in difficult conditions, and high risks are often compensated by excess profits during post-war recovery.
Ukraine as an example
Despite the active phase of war, Ukraine has managed to retain FDI and even attract new investments. Foreign businesses deliberately enter the country now to secure first-mover advantages in the reconstruction process.
Lawyers note that even cautious investors register representative offices, while more determined ones are already operating. The logic is clear: those who enter first will gain the greatest opportunities in reconstruction and long-term expansion.
Ukraine also holds a unique geographic advantage: close proximity to EU and UK markets, combined with free trade agreements, makes it an attractive long-term production and export base.
Where investors see opportunity
Extractive industries
UNCTAD data shows that about half of FDI in unstable states flows into extractive industries. Ukraine, rich in lithium, titanium, rare earths, and gas, fits this pattern.
Historical parallels reinforce this:
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Angola saw a 155% FDI increase during five years of civil war (1998–2002).
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Iraq, after Saddam Hussein’s fall, ranked among the top 10 globally for FDI growth between 2010–2014.
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DR Congo, despite decades of conflict, remains a magnet for cobalt, copper, gold and tin investments.
Military Tech & defense industry
In 2025 alone, hundreds of millions of dollars are expected to flow into Ukrainian Military Tech. Combat-proven innovation makes Ukraine a natural partner. Companies like Rheinmetall, Baykar, Waagner-Biro are already building facilities in-country.
Energy, logistics & construction
Strategic sectors with multiplier effects include:
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Renewables: e.g., DTEK–Vestas 500 MW wind farm.
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Construction materials: factories by Ireland’s Kingspan Group.
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Logistics: new storage, ports, and border infrastructure to reconnect Ukraine with EU markets.
Polish capital as a leading example
Since the full-scale war, about 300 new Polish companies have entered Ukraine. By early 2024, their number exceeded 3,600, with 3,000 already engaged in reconstruction. Names include Budimex, Orlen, Cersanit, Unimot.
Key arguments investors use
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Timing is profitability: Ukraine’s reconstruction demand is estimated at $524 billion — early entry maximizes upside.
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Multiplier industries: $1 invested in infrastructure generates $2–3 of GDP growth (World Bank).
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Government incentives: tax breaks, moratorium on inspections, PPP programs.
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Local execution partners: strong Ukrainian HR, logistics, and business services reduce operational risks.
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Low entry point: wartime undervaluation of assets creates opportunities for future capitalization growth.
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Supply chain diversification: EU firms are nearshoring production from Asia — Ukraine is a natural hub.
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EU integration guarantees: reforms are under European Commission monitoring, providing external credibility absent in other conflict markets.
Bottom line
Ukraine remains one of the riskiest markets in Europe, but also one of the most promising investment stories of the next decade. High risk comes with high potential: for investors willing to step in now, the payoff could be strategic dominance in post-war reconstruction and access to one of Europe’s largest emerging markets.
