Ukraine’s real sector is financially stronger than the wartime shock of 2022 suggested, but the recovery is uneven. The latest assessment of corporate financial health shows that a large part of private non-financial assets is concentrated in companies rated strong or excellent.
What the assessment covers
The analysis covers about one hundred eighty thousand companies annually from 2021 to 2025 and represents more than ninety percent of sector revenue. The model evaluates revenue dynamics, profitability, debt burden, liquidity and other indicators that show how resilient a company is under stress.
After the deterioration in 2022, many indicators recovered in 2023 and 2024. By 2025, roughly half of the assets of private non-financial companies were linked to businesses with strong or excellent financial condition.
Which sectors look better
The strongest positions are seen in agriculture, machine building, trade and processing industry. These sectors combine demand, operating experience, export or domestic market capacity and, in many cases, moderate debt. They are not free from risks, but they look more balanced than sectors hit by heavy energy, logistics or market pressure.
Chemicals and metallurgy remain more vulnerable. Their weak-company share increased, reflecting high costs, infrastructure constraints, energy dependence and exposure to external price cycles.
Bank lending and investment signals
Among active bank borrowers, about half are also rated strong or excellent. The share of weak borrowers declined significantly compared with 2022, which supports cautious growth in corporate lending. At the same time, active borrowers still account for only part of total sector assets and revenue, so the credit potential of the real sector is not exhausted.
The result is not a green light for every company. Closed businesses are not fully visible in the sample, and weak standalone firms may belong to stronger business groups. Investors therefore need sector selection, cash-flow analysis and ownership context, not only headline averages.
What can change the picture
The main risks are slower economic growth, labor shortages, higher wages, logistics costs and pressure on margins. Moderate debt and liquidity remain important buffers. For Ukraine’s investment climate, the message is practical: opportunities exist, but the strongest cases are in sectors where demand, management discipline and financial resilience already overlap.
