1 | Status of Negotiations
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Autonomous Trade Measures (ATM) expire 5 June 2025.
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Deputy Economy Minister Taras Kachka confirms technical talks next week; joint model to be unveiled June and finalised by end-July.
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Danish EU Council presidency (from 1 July) expected to broker consensus.
2 | Key Elements under Discussion
| Issue | Current ATM Position (2024/25) | Proposed Transition Model |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | Duty-free; €3.5 bn of exports in 2024 | Maintain open access; EU duties stay only on Russian/Belarusian corn |
| Wheat & Barley | Duty-free | EU assessing Iberian demand; volume-based safeguards possible |
| Sensitive products | Temporary quotas on sugar, honey, eggs, poultry | Convert to tariff-rate quotas under DCFTA with revised volumes |
| Industrial goods (steel/MMC) | Parliament endorsed continued preference regime | Preferential access expected to stay post-ATM |
3 | Timetable
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Early June – Technical alignment with European Commission.
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Late June – Draft model to EU Council and sector stakeholders.
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End-July – Final agreement targeting transparent quota table and “smooth” rule change summer 2025.
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6 June 2025 – Formal shift to new framework, no immediate market disruption.
4 | Market Implications
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Export continuity: Authorities insist “nothing changes” for Ukrainian exporters on 6 June; adjustments phase in during 2025.
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Quota recalibration: DCFTA base quotas (e.g., corn 650 kt, wheat 1 mt) will be prorated (7/12) for remainder of 2025, then renegotiated.
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Strategic sectors: Dairy, sugar and poultry producers prioritised for dialogue under Minister Vitalii Koval’s remit.
5 | Next Steps for Business
| Action | Timeline |
|---|---|
| Monitor EU Council conclusions and Danish presidency schedule | July |
| Align export planning with provisional 7/12 quotas | June–Dec 2025 |
| Engage in stakeholder consultations on sensitive products | Q3 2025 |
Ukraine positions the upcoming framework as a “bridge” to full internal-market integration, aiming to lock in predictable volumes while EU accession talks progress.
