Headline Numbers (USDA WASDE, July 2025)
| Crop | 2025/26 MY (July) | Change vs. June | 2024/25 Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Soybeans | 7.6 million t | +1.0 Mt (+15 %) | 7.0 Mt |
| Wheat | 22.0 million t | –1.0 Mt | 22.5 Mt |
| Corn | 30.5 million t | no change | 30.5 Mt |
Why USDA Raised the Soybean Forecast
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Expanded acreage — farmers shifted low‑margin wheat and sunflower fields to soy in central & western oblasts.
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Favourable weather — timely rains during flowering/pod set boosted yield potential.
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Input access — better availability of certified seed and herbicides via EU corridors.
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Robust crush margins — high veg‑oil and meal prices encouraged forward contracts from domestic processors.
“Ukraine is poised to deliver its largest soy crop on record, surprising even bullish analysts,” the USDA noted in its July report.
Market & Logistics Implications
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Exportable surplus
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Additional 0.7–0.8 Mt likely enters export channels in early 2026.
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Rail & Danube congestion
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Record volume adds ~25 000 rail‑car loads; border crossings and river ports face peak‑season pressure.
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Currency inflow
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At an average $475 t FOB, the incremental tonnage could inject ~$350 million into Ukraine’s FX reserves.
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Global balance sheet
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Higher Ukrainian and Argentine supply trims the USDA’s U.S. export outlook, easing global price pressure.
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Risks to Watch
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Early frost in north‑eastern oblasts where planting was late.
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Danube security—drone strikes could disrupt loading pace.
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ASF vaccine rollout—larger pig herds would raise domestic meal use, cutting export availability.
Takeaway
Ukraine’s farmers continue to pivot from raw grain to higher‑value oilseeds. If harvest weather holds and logistics corridors stay open, the 2025/26 soy crop could become a bright spot for both farm incomes and national export revenues—even as wheat slips and corn plateaus.
