Ukraine’s latest macro forecasts point to a slow but consistent recovery path, even under wartime conditions. MP Danylo Hetmantsev, citing National Bank projections, notes three key signals: inflation is easing faster than expected, the foreign exchange market remains stable, and the economy is set to grow—modestly, but without recessionary swings.
Inflation: easing faster than planned
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The NBU now expects inflation to fall to 9.2% by end-2025, while earlier it projected 9.7%.
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Further disinflation is forecast: 6.6% in 2026 and about 5% in 2027.
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The slowdown is driven by lower food prices (vegetables, grain), a good harvest, and a calm FX market.
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At the same time, the MP warns that electricity shortages and blackout risks may push prices up in specific sectors.
For investors, this means the NBU is preserving a disinflation track close to European norms, which helps with planning, wage indexation and pricing in long contracts.
GDP: growth is slow, but it is growth
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The NBU expects +1.9% GDP growth in 2025, about 2% in 2026, and 2.8% in 2027.
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These figures are slightly lower than the July projections, but the direction is unchanged: the economy is not falling back into contraction.
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This growth model corresponds to an economy at war that relies on external financing, exports recovery, and gradual rebuilding of energy and logistics.
In other words, Ukraine is following a “low but positive” growth corridor — it is not a boom cycle, but it is a stable macro background for reconstruction projects, export manufacturing, and localization.
Labor market: unemployment to decline
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Unemployment is projected to fall to 11% in 2025, 10% in 2026, and 9% in 2027.
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Real wages are expected to grow faster than inflation, which supports internal demand.
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For businesses, this means two things at once: labor will remain available, but the cost of qualified staff will rise.
FX and savings: trust in the hryvnia matters
A separate indicator Hetmantsev notes is the population’s interest in hryvnia-denominated instruments. This shows confidence in the NBU’s exchange rate policy and keeps dollarization under control. For the financial sector, it simplifies funding and supports domestic bond placements.
What can derail the scenario
Even with a positive macro track, the MP points to one real risk block:
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energy shortages and emergency outages;
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security risks affecting logistics and production;
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the need to keep imports for energy and defense, which puts pressure on the balance.
These are wartime constraints, not structural macro errors — but investors must price them in.
Bottom line
Ukraine is building a recovery model on three pillars: external financing, controlled inflation, and gradual growth. The numbers are not spectacular, but they are predictable — and predictability is exactly what both domestic and foreign capital have been waiting for.
