Headline numbers
| Metric | Q2 2024 | Q2 2025 | Δ y/y |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aggregate market cap of 10 listed agri groups* | €10.36 bn | €18.74 bn | +€8.38 bn (+44.7 %) |
| Top contributors | MHP, Kernel, Astarta-Kyiv | – | – |
| Isolated laggards | AgroGeneration, Ukrprodukt | – | – |
*MHP, Kernel, Agroton, Astarta-Kyiv, AgroGeneration, Milkiland, IMC, KSG Agro, Ukrprodukt, Agroliga. Source: stock-exchange filings, UkrAgroConsult.
Investment signals
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P/E compression reversed
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Multi-year discount attached to wartime risk is narrowing as cash-flow visibility improves.
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Select stocks still trade below regional peer multiples—scope for further rerating.
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Liquidity returning to Warsaw and London
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Average daily turnover up double-digit vs. 2024; buy-side depth widening beyond war-risk specialists.
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FX stability underpins earnings guidance
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Hryvnia volatility fell after NBU policy tightening, supporting USD/EUR-denominated revenue translation.
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CapEx pipelines re-activated
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Balance-sheet expansion and donor-backed credit lines allow resumed spending on drying, storage and irrigation assets—catalysts for future EBITDA growth.
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Key drivers behind the rally
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Operational resilience: Export corridors via Danube and Black Sea restored throughput; crushing margins and oilseed spreads widened.
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Stronger 2025 harvest outlook: Re-start of irrigation projects and higher winter-crop survival rates boosted forward price assumptions.
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Policy clarity: EU autonomous trade measures extended (albeit with safeguards), ensuring quota-free access for maize, wheat and oilseed cakes.
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Investor rotation: Frontier-market funds, family offices and Gulf agri-sovereigns re-entered positions amid clearer risk-sharing instruments (ECA guarantees, war-risk insurance).
Watch-list for Q3–Q4 2025
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Forward contracting pace: Early new-crop sales signal confidence in freight, insurance and FX conditions.
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Dividend reinstatements / share buybacks: Potential catalysts for additional upside.
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M&A spill-over: Smaller distressed farms may become targets as listed groups deploy enlarged cash buffers.
“We now see a market that prices Ukraine risk rather than excludes it—equity and debt windows are reopening for producers with audited reporting, export optionality and ESG-compliant land banks.”
— Independent agri-equity analyst, Warsaw
