The global barley market is entering the 2026 and 2027 season with contradictory signals. Production and opening stocks are expected to rise, while demand from several major importers may soften. For Ukraine, the key variables are again China’s buying activity and weather risks in Australia.
Analysts cited by the market expect global barley output to reach 155 million tonnes, with opening stocks rising to 21.3 million tonnes. That combination normally puts pressure on prices because buyers see more supply and less urgency.
Importers may buy less
Turkey, China and Iran are among the buyers that could reduce purchases. If they step back at the same time, trade flows may shift and competition between exporters will intensify. The pressure, however, is not one-sided, because some suppliers in the Southern Hemisphere may face lower harvests.
Australia is the key uncertainty. If El Nino conditions form in 2026 and bring drought risk, Australian export capacity could shrink. That would support barley from Ukraine and the wider Black Sea region in Asian and Middle Eastern markets.
Ukraine’s opening
China was one of the factors that supported prices at the start of the previous season. If Chinese importers become active in July, demand for the new Ukrainian crop could strengthen and help balance the pressure from higher global stocks.
For Ukrainian farmers and traders, the season will depend on timing. A large world crop is not automatically bad if competing exporters face weather problems and buyers return early. But without strong import demand, logistics discipline and quick contracting will matter as much as the harvest itself.
