Production Dynamics: Peak, Collapse, and Stabilization
The Experts Club information and analytical center, together with the Association of Cement Producers of Ukraine “Ukrcement”, analyzed the current state of the cement market.
Over the past five years, the industry has passed through four distinct stages:
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2021 – production peak at 11 million tons.
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2022 – collapse to 5.4 million tons due to the full-scale invasion.
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2023 – partial recovery to 7.43 million tons.
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2024 – stabilization at 7.93 million tons.
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2025 – manufacturers expect an effective “ceiling” of ~8 million tons, given logistics and security constraints.
Domestic Consumption: Stabilized but Half of Pre-War Level
Cement consumption in Ukraine mirrors production dynamics:
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2021 – ~10.6 million tons.
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2022 – fall to ~4.5 million tons.
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2023 – recovery to ~6.2 million tons.
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2024–2025 – stable at 6.3 million tons, about half of the pre-war level.
Structural shift in demand
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Before the war: mass housing & commercial construction dominated.
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Now: infrastructure, defense, and fortifications (roads, bridges, shelters, engineering structures).
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Targeted programs (e-Housing, municipal projects) support demand but do not restore it to pre-war highs.
Exports and Imports: Balancing the Market
With reduced domestic demand, Ukraine has reoriented excess volumes abroad:
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2021 – 971,000 tons exported (9% of production).
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2024 – 1.7 million tons exported (21.3% of production).
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Key destinations: Romania, Poland, Hungary, Moldova.
Imports, on the other hand, collapsed:
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2020 – ~1 million tons.
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2024 – ~40,000 tons (mainly niche products such as white cement).
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Protected by anti-dumping duties: Turkey (33–51% until 2026), Russia/Belarus/Moldova (extended until 2030).
Market Structure: Consolidation and Global Integration
The 2024–2025 market is highly concentrated. Main producers:
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Ivano-Frankivsk Cement PJSC.
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CRH Group (VIPCEM, Podilsky Cement, Mykolaiv Cement, Cement LLC – after acquiring Dyckerhoff/Buzzi assets).
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Kryvyi Rih Cement PJSC.
The CRH/Dyckerhoff deal, while scrutinized by antitrust regulators, may bring:
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integration into global logistics chains,
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modernization of production,
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stronger supply stability during reconstruction.
Infrastructure as a Driver of Demand
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Road and bridge construction, fortifications, energy facilities, and municipal projects are now the backbone of consumption.
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Cement-concrete roads offer durability and military/civilian logistics benefits, creating a multiplier effect across the economy.
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In October 2025, NIRI and Ukrcement will host a seminar on the role of cement solutions in Ukraine’s reconstruction.
B2B Dominance with B2C Niche
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B2B remains the core (construction contractors, road companies, reinforced concrete producers).
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B2C (retail networks, small contractors) retains relevance in repairs and private low-rise construction.
Growth Limits and Reconstruction Potential
Constraints:
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Military risks.
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Energy infrastructure vulnerabilities.
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Logistics challenges.
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Regulatory and competition risks.
Long-term scenario:
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Large-scale recovery (12–13 million tons consumption) requires $35 billion/year in reconstruction financing.
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Predictable competition rules and fair pricing are critical to ensure investment efficiency.
Experts Club Conclusion
The Ukrainian cement industry has reached a “wartime balance”:
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Production ~8 million tons.
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Domestic consumption ~6.3 million tons.
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Exports ~1.5–1.7 million tons.
Future acceleration depends on:
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Stable financing of infrastructure and housing,
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Affordable energy supply,
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Fair competition between producers.
In this scenario, cement will remain one of the first industries to transform reconstruction budgets into GDP and jobs — through concrete, reinforced concrete, roads, and fortifications.
