The National Bank of Ukraine projects inflation at about 7.5 percent by the end of 2026, easing to 6 percent in 2027 and reaching the 5 percent target in 2028. GDP growth is expected at 1.8 percent in 2026, 2.8 percent in 2027, and 3.7 percent in 2028.
The baseline view assumes gradual normalization of conditions and continued international support. Energy sector damage remains a key inflationary factor, while higher investment in reconstruction and defense supports medium term growth.
Fiscal and external financing outlook
The NBU expects the 2026 budget deficit at around 19 percent of GDP, declining to 14 percent in 2027 and 9 percent in 2028. International partners are projected to provide USD 51.4 billion in 2026, USD 42.7 billion in 2027, and USD 21.6 billion in 2028, supporting reserves of roughly USD 65 billion, USD 73 billion, and USD 71 billion.
Labor market and investment signals
The forecast assumes net population outflow of about 0.2 million in 2026, with gradual return starting in 2027. Tight labor supply and recovery projects are expected to drive real wage growth of 7 percent in 2026 and 6 percent in 2027–2028.
Investor takeaways
- Macro stability hinges on sustained external financing
- Disinflation supports gradual easing of monetary conditions
- Reconstruction and energy recovery remain key growth drivers
For investors, the report frames a path toward stabilization, but execution depends on security and funding continuity.
