El Nino is again becoming a commercial risk for the global fruit market. What used to look like a forecast scenario is now forming in the tropical Pacific and may influence export seasons in Peru and Chile.
NOAA data cited by industry participants show sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region reaching about one point seven degrees Celsius by mid-June. Many models point to a moderate or strong event, while part of the forecast set allows a very strong peak in September-November 2026.
Peru: heat is the main threat
For Peru, the main risk from August to December is heat rather than coastal rain. Warmer nights in La Libertad, Lambayeque, Piura and Ica can affect blueberries and table grapes, shifting flowering, harvest timing, berry size and post-shipment quality.
The blueberry sector is better prepared than before because growers have moved toward varieties with low chilling-hour requirements. Still, strong early volumes can be followed by gaps or sudden peaks if temperature anomalies continue.
Chile: rain and quality risk
Chile faces a different problem. In central and south-central regions, El Nino is often linked with wetter winter and spring weather. For cherries, rain close to harvest can cause cracking, disease pressure and quality losses after long-distance shipping.
Grapes, blueberries and stone fruits can also face tighter harvest windows, more pressure on packing lines and higher logistics risk. For importers and retailers, the lesson is practical: fixed seasonal calendars are less useful than flexible procurement and weekly field monitoring.
