Ukraines central bank kept its key policy rate at 15.5% on December 11, 2025, and the discussion inside the Monetary Policy Committee suggests that a new easing cycle is more likely in 2026 rather than sooner. The main condition is a clear reduction in pro inflation risks, with the largest uncertainty tied to the parameters of external financing for 2026–2027.
For investors, this is not only a rate story. It is a signal about macro anchors: external funding predictability, inflation expectations, and the balance between supporting growth and protecting currency and price stability during wartime recovery.
What the committee said about the policy path
Most committee members argued that holding the rate at 15.5% is needed to bring inflation back toward the 5% target given elevated risks related to the war and the possibility of insufficient international financing. The vote split reportedly showed ten members supporting a hold and one member supporting a cut to 15%.
A minority view was that inflation was slowing sustainably and even ahead of the NBU forecast, which could justify cautious easing, while reacting to external financing risks only if those risks materialize.
The baseline scenario for 2026 and the range of outcomes
Several members expect that policy can be eased in 2026 if inflation risks fall, especially if the external financing outlook becomes clearer. In their projections, eight members see the key rate at 12.5% by the end of 2026. At the same time, others still price in persistent war related inflation risks and expect a higher end 2026 range of about 13–14%.
- Trigger for cuts: lower pro inflation risks and more predictable external funding parameters
- Base case direction: easing in 2026 rather than in the near term
- Risk case: a tighter stance if inflation or financing risks worsen
What it means for investors and operating businesses
If the key rate stays high for longer, hryvnia funding and working capital will remain expensive, which keeps pressure on leverage heavy sectors and short payback projects. A clearer path to easing in 2026 can support credit demand, refinancing activity, and long horizon capex, but only if inflation expectations and FX stability hold.
Investors should monitor three indicators: the schedule and size of external funding for 2026–2027, the inflation trajectory relative to the 5% objective, and the NBU communication on whether the risk balance shifts toward easing or renewed tightening.
