Ukraine’s commercial loan portfolio is expanding much faster in 2025 than it did last year. According to the Ministry of Economy and the National Bank, in the first ten months of the year the increase in loans to businesses already exceeded the full-year growth of 2024 by around 130%. This is an early sign that banks are willing to take more risk and that companies are again borrowing to finance real projects rather than just working-capital survival.
Where the new lending demand is coming from
The strongest demand is coming from sectors directly tied to reconstruction and exports: construction materials, logistics, agribusiness processing, energy projects and basic manufacturing. Many of these companies are using loans to co-finance projects supported by international financial institutions or state guarantee programs, which partly compensate for elevated interest rates and war-related risk.
Banks are prioritising borrowers with transparent cash flows and export revenue, as these provide natural hedging against macro and security shocks. At the same time, competition for high-quality borrowers is intensifying, which pushes banks to revisit pricing, collateral requirements and service packages for mid-sized corporates.
How banks are managing risk
The banking system is still operating under conservative risk limits, but institutions have accumulated excess liquidity and capital buffers that must be deployed productively. Regulatory initiatives such as portfolio guarantees, partial risk-sharing with development banks and clear rules for NPL workouts make it easier for credit committees to approve new deals.
- shift from emergency refinancing in 2022–2023 toward investment and capex loans;
- stronger role of state and IFI guarantee schemes in de-risking new portfolios;
- growing share of hryvnia-denominated lending, which reduces FX risk for SMEs;
- focus on borrowers integrated into EU value chains or logistics corridors.
What this means for investors
For investors, the acceleration in corporate lending is a forward-looking indicator of economic activity and confidence in Ukraine’s recovery trajectory. It signals that banks see enough visibility on cash flows to extend multi-year funding and that companies are planning for growth rather than contraction.
Equity investors in Ukrainian banks can interpret the expanding commercial loan book as a driver of future interest income, provided asset quality is kept under control. For private debt and blended-finance funds, the trend highlights a growing pipeline of co-financing opportunities with local banks in reconstruction, infrastructure and export-oriented projects.
